Change Not Linear

For Those Who Think
Change Is Linear

A new definition of "shock and awe" awaits.

Indeed, it’s a very long road from Early-Man to the modern 21st Century Man.

Libraries are full of books written about the journey from Cave-Human to Trans-Human.

Compressing time, we'll say this about our world of today and tomorrow:

Biologically, our brains are little different than 50,000 years ago.
We carry much of the same genetically imprinted thinking from the caveman epoch with all the attending behavioral artifacts.

Carts full of superstitions, supernatural visions, and mystical belief systems.
It’s now <barely> understood that the irreducible component of a family, tribe, state, or nation is an individual human being.
We live in a world of philosophy, technology, and science. We will continue to do so.

"SCIENCE generates a constantly increasing rate-of-change in technology."

The above simple-sounding but profound statement has more impact on your life than anything you might imagine. Folks, you likely won't believe it yet, but this is HUGE!

"What In The World Are You Talking About?"

Introducing "The Singularity".

98% of all humans have no idea what this implies or means.

You'll soon be among the informed 2% who know.

[Unless you've already discovered it.]

"The Singularity." That's what Ray Kurzweil [ www.kurzweilai.net ] and many others call it. Here are some of Kurzweil's thoughts:

"The paradigm shift rate (i.e., the overall rate of technical progress) is currently doubling (approximately) every decade; that is, paradigm shift times are halving every decade (and the rate of acceleration is itself growing exponentially).

So, the technological progress in the twenty-first century will be equivalent to what would require (in the linear view) on the order of 200 centuries.

In contrast, the twentieth century saw only about 20 years of progress (again at today's rate of progress) since we have been speeding up to current rates.

So the twenty-first century will see about a 1,000 times greater technological change than its predecessor."

From the The Singularity Institute, a more complete definition:

The Singularity is the technological creation of smarter-than-human intelligence.

There are several technologies that are often mentioned as heading in this direction. The most commonly mentioned is probably Artificial Intelligence, but there are others: direct brain-computer interfaces, biological augmentation of the brain, genetic engineering, ultra-high-resolution scans of the brain followed by computer emulation.

Some of these technologies seem likely to arrive much earlier than the others, but there are nonetheless several independent technologies all heading in the direction of the Singularity - several different technologies, which, if they reached a threshold level of sophistication, would enable the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence.

A future that contains smarter-than-human minds is genuinely different in a way that goes beyond the usual visions of a future filled with bigger and better gadgets.

Vernor Vinge originally coined the term "Singularity" in observing that, just as our model of physics breaks down when it tries to model the singularity at the center of a black hole, our model of the world breaks down when it tries to model a future that contains entities smarter than human.

Human intelligence is the foundation of human technology; all technology is ultimately the product of intelligence.

If technology can turn around and enhance intelligence, this closes the loop, creating a positive feedback effect.

Combine faster intelligence, smarter intelligence, and recursively self-improving intelligence, and the result is an event so huge that there are no metaphors left. There's nothing remaining to compare it to.

The Singularity is beyond huge, but it can begin with something small.

If one smarter-than-human intelligence exists, that mind will find it easier to create still smarter minds. In this respect the dynamic of the Singularity resembles other cases where small causes can have large effects; toppling the first domino in a chain, starting an avalanche with a pebble, perturbing an upright object balanced on its tip.

(Human technological civilization occupies a metastable state in which the Singularity is an attractor; once the system starts to flip over to the new state, the flip accelerates.)

All it takes is ONE technology - Artificial Intelligence, brain-computer interfaces, or perhaps something unforeseen- that advances to the point of creating smarter-than-human minds.

That ONE technological advance is the equivalent of the first self-replicating chemical that gave rise to life on Earth.

[A very large statement indeed.]

Our Definition of The Singularity

"A future coordinate

in the space-time continuum —

beyond which nothing intelligent can be said".

That's our definition of the Singularity. As concise as we can state it.

Although always a moving target, thoughtful people say sometime around 2045.

SO, HERE WE ARE

Billions of naked-apes carrying around brains left over from the caveman epoch with only a few trying to understand the inevitable arrival of smarter-than-human intelligence.

Like it or not, it will happen. And, sooner than we might think.

At least we've learned to count.

This unprecedented RADICAL CHANGE brought about by The Singularity will impact mankind beyond anyone’s imagination.

Imagine the CHANGE being unleashed by all who create, design, and implement this exciting future.

People who understand and use

The Extropian Principles

may have the best tools for living and prospering in this brave New World.

We – absolutely - think so.

Nonetheless, between now and then we’ll certainly be gaining new understandings of the word "Transition".